Author

Win Thin 153 posts 0 comments

Win Thin is the Head of Emerging Markets Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Win received his Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University in 1995, specializing in international and development Economics. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983.

Economy

Two-Track Europe and Thoughts On Euro Zone Growth

Win Thin Feb 15, 2011

By Win Thin It’s a tale of two euros when it comes to growth in that region. Q4 euro zone came in at 2.0% y/y, slightly weaker than expected and up slightly from 1.9% y/y in Q3. However, the variance within the major euro zone…

Political Economy

Mubarak Defies Expectations And Stays On

Win Thin Feb 10, 2011

By Win Thin The situation remains unsettled in Egypt. As of this writing, President Mubarak pledged to stay on until his term ends in September, but delegated some authority to VP Suleiman. Because of his strong connections to…

Markets

On Portugal’s Exploding Yields and Some Thoughts On The Euro Zone Periphery

Win Thin Feb 10, 2011

By Win Thin There is no real news behind the recent underperformance of Portugal bonds, as it appears that markets are simply getting more nervous as the country’s 10-year yields stay above 7% for the fifth straight day today and for 10 of…

Markets

Asia Economic and Currency Snapshot For Feb 2011

Win Thin Feb 1, 2011

By Win Thin and his Emerging Markets Strategy Team at Brown Brothers Harriman India: Economic and Currency Snapshot Macroeconomic Update: GDP rose 8.9% y/y in both Q2 and Q3, and is expected to grow about 9% in 2010 and 8.5% in 2011.…

Markets

Saudi Concerns About High Oil Prices Signals Potential OPEC Move

Win Thin Jan 31, 2011

by Win Thin Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi said that crude oil prices between $70-80 per barrel are “appropriate.” OPEC Secretary-General el-Badri said his group would add oil output in the event of any supply disruptions, pledging…

Markets

Some Thoughts On Potential Greek Debt Restructuring

Win Thin Jan 31, 2011

By Win Thin Here are some more thoughts regarding a possible Greek debt restructuring, which was reported today by the Greek press. Reports suggest that the EU, IMF, and the ECB have reached a basic understanding that a Greek debt…

Markets

EM Vulnerability Table Shows Divergences In Fundamentals

Win Thin Jan 28, 2011

by Win Thin EM currencies are getting hammered in this latest bout of risk off trading, though the performance is very mixed across the asset class. Given that markets are now punishing EM currencies with weak fundamentals or where…

Markets

RBI Hikes 25 bp But Needs To Get More Aggressive

Win Thin Jan 26, 2011

By Win Thin Reserve Bank of India hiked interest rates by 25 bp yesterday, as expected. Reverse repo rate is now 5.5% and the repo rate 6.5%. The RBI said it will hold its mid-quarterly policy review on March 17 under the recent switch…

Markets

Some Thoughts On Brazil Rate Hike

Win Thin Jan 20, 2011

By Win Thin Brazil central bank hiked rates 50 bp late yesterday to 11.25%, as expected, though some chatter was heard about a possible 75 bp move. It said the move was the beginning of an adjustment process that along with “macro…

Markets

Monetary Tightening In Asia Continues With PBOC Move

Win Thin Jan 14, 2011

By Win Thin It’s all about monetary tightening in EM today. PBOC hiked reserve requirements another 50 bp today, effective January 20, and has hiked a total here of 350 bp since starting in January 2010. This comes after the Christmas…