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Sober Look 181 posts 0 comments

Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education. Follow him on his blog or twitter.

Economy

TARGET2 replacing other sources of funding for Bank of Spain

Sober Look Aug 15, 2012

It is clear that lending to Spanish banks is now funded entirely via TARGET2 (borrowing from the rest of the Eurosystem) rather than with deposits. In fact deposits at the Bank of Spain by the Spanish government and Spanish banks (excess…

Markets

All is well with the world

Sober Look Aug 13, 2012

The VIX index hit a multi-year low today (it went below 14.1 this morning).

Political Economy

The Fed’s zero rate policy is toxic for US household interest income

Sober Look Aug 7, 2012

A key negative side effect of persistently low rates on households is the delay of retirement. This inability of many Americans to retire on their savings because of low rates is keeping them in the workforce, limiting job opportunities for…

Markets

The high yield bond market looks overheated in the US

Sober Look Aug 7, 2012

The rally in leveraged finance markets is back on, as investors snap up junk bonds as quickly as they come to market.

Political Economy

Ireland: in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king

Sober Look Aug 4, 2012

Ireland was hit hard by the financial crisis in 2009 - before Greece and Portugal came on the scene. It took a complete recapitalization of the banking system via "bad bank" structure called Irish Bank Resolution Corporation (IBRC) that…

Economy

The euro zone’s manufacturing contraction is now driven by Germany

Sober Look Aug 4, 2012

As the Eurozone recession (which started months ago) worsens, the area's manufacturing activity, as measured by the PMI index, is contracting at a pace not seen since 2009. A great deal of this decline however is now driven by Germany…

Markets

Markets are betting on US housing recovery

Sober Look Aug 1, 2012

Both the equity and the credit markets are betting on US housing recovery.

Monetary System

Did Draghi act on his own?

Sober Look Jul 30, 2012

Everyone of course assumes that the ECB has put together some type of plan to change its policy course. But did this statement come from the ECB (similar to the announcements of the FOMC) or is Draghi trying to do this on his own? Did the…

Markets

Chart of the Day: 5-year Swiss rate goes negative

Sober Look Jul 23, 2012

The Swiss government bond curve is now negative for maturities of five years and under. Investors are willing to lock up a negative yield for 5 years just to get out of euro denominated assets without taking much FX risk.

Economy

Stagflation is becoming entrenched in Argentina’s economy

Sober Look Jul 22, 2012

By Sober Look Further evidence of Argentina's crashing economy is now directly visible in the nation's GDP contraction. Reuters: - Argentina's economy contracted in May while industrial production slumped further in June, data…