Author

Sober Look 181 posts 0 comments

Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education. Follow him on his blog or twitter.

Economy

Catalonia to tap Spain’s regional bailout fund

Sober Look Aug 28, 2012

By Sober Look As expected, more of Spain's regions are asking for a bailout. The program to help the regions was set up in July (see discussion) to create Spain's internal version of the "Stability Bond". With the regional fiscal problems…

Economy

Look who benefits most from a weak euro

Sober Look Aug 24, 2012

By Sober Look Analysts often talk about how the weak euro helps exporters in the Eurozone, particularly Germany because of its massive export sector. But is Germany the main beneficiary? Which other nations want the euro to weaken further?…

Economy

China’s slowdown can no longer be masked by cooked economic data

Sober Look Aug 24, 2012

By Sober Look As yesterday's flash PMI numbers show, the declines in iron ore prices (discussed here) were indeed signaling an ongoing broad based slowdown in China's economy. Bloomberg: - China’s manufacturing may be contracting at a…

Political Economy

Four Fiscal Cliff Scenarios from Credit Suisse

Sober Look Aug 22, 2012

By Sober Look Back in May we discussed the impact of several possible "fiscal cliff" scenarios on the US GDP growth (the GDP drag). Those projections were developed by Goldman. We now have a similar analysis performed by Credit Suisse. CS…

Economy

Decline in steel and iron ore price indicates poor Chinese industrial demand

Sober Look Aug 22, 2012

By Sober Look With all the conflicting economic indicators coming out of China, it is difficult to gauge whether economic growth has stabilized after recent declines. One indicator that clearly points to potential ongoing slowdown in…

Markets

FHA’s 30x leverage on mortgages is creating a new "subprime" market

Sober Look Aug 19, 2012

Since there is no appetite in Congress to bail out the FHA as its financial condition deteriorates, Fitch believes that the FHA may end up renegotiating its full protection on these mortgages with the banks who hold the loans. The agency…

Markets

FHA’s 30x leverage on mortgages is creating a new “subprime” market

Sober Look Aug 19, 2012

Economy

Food price inflation now visible in China

Sober Look Aug 16, 2012

By Sober Look China's Ministry of Commerce blamed the increase in vegetable prices on "strong winds and rainfall in the country's eastern regions" that "disrupted production and logistics." Nevertheless vegetable prices are up 15.4% over…

Markets

Gasoline price spikes on lower supplies; will add to consumer woes

Sober Look Aug 15, 2012

The US consumer can't catch a break. As if rising food prices weren't enough - with corn prices at record highs and other food prices expected to move higher next year - we now also have a sharp increase in gasoline prices.

Markets

What the steepening VIX futures curve means

Sober Look Aug 15, 2012

In spite of the drop in VIX, there is no confidence that the recent market stability is sustainable over the longer term.