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Michael Pettis 118 posts 0 comments

Michael Pettis is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a finance professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets. Pettis has worked on Wall Street in trading, capital markets, and corporate finance since 1987. Pettis is a member of the Institute of Latin American Studies Advisory Board at Columbia University as well as the Dean’s Advisory Board at the School of Public and International Affairs. He received an MBA in Finance in 1984 and an MIA in Development Economics in 1981, both from Columbia University. He writes the blog .

Monetary System

What multiple should we give China’s GDP growth?

Michael Pettis May 19, 2015

By Michael Pettis Last week Derek Scissors, a think tank analysts at the American Enterprise Institute, published an article in which he referred to an October, 2014, studyby Credit Suisse that attempts to measure total household wealth by…

Political Economy

Will the AIIB ever matter?

Michael Pettis Apr 15, 2015

By Michael Pettis When Isaac, an editor at Foreign Policy, sent me an email two weeks ago asking if I could write a piece on the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), I quickly wrote back promising 1,200 words within a few…

Political Economy

When do we decide that Europe must restructure much of its debt?

Michael Pettis Feb 27, 2015

It is hard to watch the Greek drama unfold without a sense of foreboding. If it is possible for the Greek economy partially to revive in spite of its tremendous debt burden, with a lot of hard work and even more good luck we can posit…

Political Economy

Syriza and the French indemnity of 1871-73

Michael Pettis Feb 5, 2015

The euro crisis is a crisis of Europe, not of European countries. It is not a conflict between Germany and Spain (and I use these two countries to represent every European country on one side or the other of the boom) about who should be…

Monetary System

Why deflationary pressure in China mandates monetary tightening, not loosening

Michael Pettis Jan 13, 2015

Deflationary pressures in China indicates that we probably need monetary tightening, not loosening. I know this sounds extremely counterintuitive, and so violates what we have learned about the world by assuming that the world looks a lot…

Political Economy

My reading of the FT on China’s “turning away from the dollar”

Michael Pettis Dec 16, 2014

By Michael Pettis The Financial Times ran a very interesting article last week called “China: Turning away from the dollar”. It got a lot of attention, at least among China analysts, and I was asked several times by friends and clients…

Economy

How might a China slowdown affect the world?

Michael Pettis Dec 3, 2014

By Michael Pettis Two years ago it was hard to find analysts who expected average GDP growth over the rest of this decade to be less than 8%. The current consensus seems to have dropped to between 6% and 7% on average. I don’t think…

Markets

China, Europe, and optimal currency zones

Michael Pettis Nov 6, 2014

Although I think China is clearly much more integrated as an optimal currency zone than Europe is today, it is probably less integrated than the US (I will use the US and Europe as the two extreme cases between which China falls). China of…

Economy

Interview: On The Global Economy and Economics

Michael Pettis Sep 24, 2014

By Michael Pettis Doug, Pancoast, an American entrepreneur living in Shanghai, asked to interview me for his blog, and I agreed to do so. I think it was meant to be a brief interview, but I began to respond on a Saturday evening, while…

Economy

What does a “good” Chinese adjustment look like?

Michael Pettis Sep 10, 2014

I have always thought that the soft landing/hard landing debate wholly misses the point when it comes to China’s economic prospects. It confuses the kinds of market-based adjustments we are likely to see in the US or Europe with the much…