Yuan in Hong Kong: The Logic

One of the surprises of the year has been the increased internationalization of the yuan, even though the capital account has not been liberated and the currency remains tightly managed. We were skeptical of the significance of the yuan…

A Look at A Half Full Glass

Anticipation of QEII in the US remains among the most potent forces in the capital markets.   Bernanke's pre-weekend speech and two dovish speeches since--Evans and Rosengren (both voting members of the FOMC).  The case the…

US Industrial Output Disappoints

The US industrial production fell 0.2% in Sept.  The market consensus was for a gain of the same magnitude.  This is the first decline since June 2009.  Manufacturing output fell 0.2%, utility output fell 1.9%, and mining…

Dollar Bounce – Not the Real Thing

Highlights The US dollar is broadly higher as the correction seen before the weekend was extended through the Asian session.  In Europe, the greenback’s gains have been pared, but it remains above last Friday’s high against the…

The Broken Cash Register

Opinion seems nearly universal that what we are currently experiencing is not the typical business cycle with which we are familiar. Besides being the end of a long speculative bubble, and the magnitudes involved, the significance of what…

Waiting on Ben

Highlights The US dollar remains soft, but within yesterday’s trading ranges, as the market awaits Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s speech early in the North American session (8:15 EST/12:15 GMT) on “Monetary Policy Objectives and…

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