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Author
Marc Chandler 872 posts 0 comments
Marc Chandler joined Brown Brothers Harriman in October 2005 as the global head of currency strategy. Previously he was the chief currency strategist for HSBC Bank USA and Mellon Bank. In addition to frequently providing insight into the developments of the day to newspapers and news wires, Chandler's essays have been published in the Financial Times, Barron's, Euromoney, Corporate Finance, and Foreign Affairs. Marc appears often on business television and is a regular guest on CNBC and writes a blog called Marc to Market. Follow him on twitter.
The ECB's hand though could be forced if there is a credit event, a non-voluntary debt restructuring. Under such conditions, it would be more difficult to show some bond holders (ECB) preferential treatment over other holders of the same…
Dollar Bid
The dollar's downside momentum has faded since the start of the week and short-term momentum traders have to adjust. There does not seem to be a precipitating factor. The German IFO was mostly better than expected and while the UK Q4 GDP…
Not Too Late for Turn Around Tuesday
Many observers will posit the euro's resilience today to the flash PMI reading for January where both the manufacturing and service sector readings were above expectations. The flash manufacturing diffusion index stood at 48.7 vs 47.3…
Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires futures traders to identify whether they have an underlying business interest (commercials) or if they don't (non-commercials). Here are seven take-aways from the most recent report that…
Euro Races Higher
The euro is racing higher after initially gapping lower in Asia on indications that the private sector involvement in Greece had hit another stumbling block ahead of today's EU finance minister summit. It has moved above the $1.30 area in…
Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations
The brief study presented here shows that over the past 60 days, the Canadian dollar has been more correlated with the S&P 500 than most currencies we looked at, and is also highly correlated with the euro, though in line with most of…
Marginalization of Western Europe
US money markets have dramatically cut their exposure to European bank paper. This has been widely reported and has intensified the dollar funding needs of some European, especially French and Italian banks.
When we talk about European…
The Importance of the Mario Brothers
They are not really brothers, but Mario Draghi and Mario Monti are countrymen and are doing a great deal to respond to the European debt crisis in ways that were unimaginable until very recently.
Chart of the Day: The Ultimate European Government Debt Chart
Check out the below graphic which shows General Government Deficit/Surplus as % of GDP on the Y axis, Government Debt as % of GDP on the X axis, and the Government Debt in Euros as the size of the bubble. Pretty cool!
Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited
As of yesterday the 60-day correlation stands near 0.78 and the 30-day correlation has fallen from 0.81 in the middle of last month to 0.65. This gives additional evidence of some fracturing of the risk-on/risk-off rubric that has been such…