Global Macro Monitor 121 posts 0 comments

The Global Macro Monitor posted several pieces earlier in the year about the Presidential Stock Cycle. The third year of a first term President is the strongest year in the cycle. The table illustrates that if the S&P500 doesn’t close…

It looks like Santa Claus is coming to town. Maybe we get a little consolidation over the next few days and then the next test for the S&P is 1257, the breakeven for the year, 1265.89, the 200-day moving average, and then the October 27…

A decision tree on what the future of the euro would look like based on different policy responses

This will surprise many. Der Spiegel reports that Germany’s fiscal management is not as “exemplary” as most perceive.

This chart from the IMF illustrates how China was able to skirt — in relative terms — the deep economic contraction by generating a huge expansion in domestic credit and increase in its money supple. This, while credit was contracting in…

Central banks have done a great job at driving up the price of gold but a horrible job at creating wage inflation. If it now takes 88 hours to buy an ounce of gold versus 20 hours in 2000, hasn’t that grossly deflated real wages in a…

We have a good friend with money tied up in the MF Global debacle. As of November 1st, he had close to $100K in his “segregated” futures account with no open positions. He says the MF Global website is shut down and the phones don’t…

We are baffled by the analysis of the analyst community, some, of which, are not so analytical. They say that Europe’s fundamental problem is that it has a central bank which is unwilling to monetize sizeable debt maturities which…

In case you missed it last night here is one that is sure to get your feathers up. It’s about time they Occupy Congress.

This shouldn’t be happening after this weekend’s good political news. The spread widening is weighing on France who will be on the hook for their banks who are heavily exposed to European sovereigns. Where are you ECB?