Poll: Is this a recession or a depression?

By Edward Harrison On Feb 16, 2009

On February 6th, I started a poll asking whether the global economy was experiencing a recession or a depression. In the interim, I have tried to stay neutral on the issue.

Now it is time to close out the poll. Below you can add your vote. I will release the final results tomorrow.

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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2 Comments

Sobers says 16 years ago

I voted small ‘d’ depression. Certainly from a UK perspective it will be as bad as the 1930 in data terms. UK GDP ‘only’ fell 5% in the early 1930s. Lack of social provision then made the effects worse than would happen now for a similar contraction.

I think the biggest issue is not the amount the economy contracts at the nadir, but the rate of recovery. Which traditionally after reccessions has been quite rapid. I suspect this time there will be no rapid rebound. No more easy credit to boost consumer spending. Consumers will be scared off borrowing at all. There will be a sea change in outlook. Debt will be socially unacceptable. Living within ones means will be the new black. And that will make the depression/recession seem to drag on forever.

As a very perceptive friend of mine has said – ‘I see nothing but grey skies ahead. It will be a very negative, gloomy time for all’

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