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Credit Writedowns

Goodbye to Credit Writedowns

Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down

What’s your model on how real GDP grows durably?

Despite the Fed’s rate rise, the convergence to zero continues unabated

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When market contagion occurs, this is how it will happen

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Commodities complex worsening

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Signals of slowing

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Asset allocation in a period of wealth mean reversion

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Jobs report means multiple hikes may be coming to a slowing US economy

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The faltering US economy, currency wars and the Fed

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The mess in Portugal is negative for debt sustainability

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The Fed’s reaction function and why I am not talking about US recession yet

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A brief mental model for thinking about monetary policy and resource misallocation

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