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Credit Writedowns

Goodbye to Credit Writedowns

Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down

What’s your model on how real GDP grows durably?

We are not in recession right now

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How this business cycle ends due to credit writedowns

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Why I am now officially on recession watch

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CORRECTION: Jobs data actually did peak in 2015, implications negative

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More on Fed rate hikes and the potential for US recession in 2016

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RBS: The bears have killed Goldilocks

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Is there a US Goldilocks scenario possible for 2016?

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The Saudis as the driving surplus oil producer

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The Fed rate hike and the potential for US recession

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Thinking about the Third Avenue fund freeze as BNP Paribas from 2007

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