News: 2013-12-09

Markets

Hussman Funds – Weekly Market Comment: The Truth Does Not Change According To Our Ability To Stomach It – December 9, 2013

“Our estimate of prospective 10-year nominal S&P 500 total returns has eroded to just 2.3%, suggesting that equities are likely to underperform even the relatively low returns available on 10-year Treasury bonds in the coming decade. Those estimates have had a correlation of over 85% with subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total returns since 1940, and a higher correlation with subsequent returns more recently.”

US and China in reflexive pursuit of growth – FT.com

“Toxoplasmosis does strange things to mice. It compromises their immune system and makes them lose their fear of cats. I wish I had their disregard for safety. If they were fund managers they would have had a fantastic year: those in my industry who have ignored the fundamentals of the market – the smell of the cat – and just been long have outperformed.

The rest of us, held back by some knowledge of valuations and history, have not.”

Confessions of an Institutional Investor | The Big Picture

Hedge Funds Trail Stocks by the Widest Margin Since 2005 – Bloomberg

How Do You Define a Bubble? (And Are We in One Now?) – Bloomberg

Gold Bearish Outlook Extended as Price Nears $1,200: Commodities – Bloomberg

Someone Bought a Tesla Model S With Bitcoins | Autopia | Wired.com

Bitcoin hype worse than ‘tulip mania’, says Dutch central banker | Technology | theguardian.com

Greenspan Says Bitcoin a Bubble Without Intrinsic Currency Value – Bloomberg

Housing

Ekonomistas: A housing-price bubble, according to Roubini and Shiller? Facts about Swedish housing prices and disposable income (English translation) | Lars E.O. Svensson

Shiller’s and Roubini’s fears of Swedish housing bubble are justified | LARS P. SYLL

Jumbos Surge 34% With Record ARMs Belying ’08 Anxiety: Mortgages – Bloomberg

Global house prices hit new peak, led by emerging Asia | Reuters

BBC News – UK house prices continue to rise rapidly, says Halifax

House prices show biggest annual leap in six years, says Halifax | Money | theguardian.com

Economics

When economic theory fails the maths exam | Business Spectator

Edmund Phelps : Nobelpreisträger lobt das Schweizer Vorbild – Nachrichten Wirtschaft – DIE WELT

Long interview with Edmund Phelps on his political philosophy of economics

 

Banks

Deutsche Bank : Anshu Jain ist plötzlich der große Gewinner – Nachrichten Wirtschaft – DIE WELT

The German public is dead against the “Anglo Saxon” style culture developed at banks Deutsche Bank which has been a chief liability in terms of risk.

Risk-Based Capital Ratios at US Banks :: Mahmoud Elamin and William Bednar :: Economic Trends :: 12.09.13 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Ex-Goldman Trader Sentenced to 9 Months in Prison – NYTimes.com

How to commit fraud and get away with it: A Guide for CEOs at macroresilience

 

Europe

Only an inveterate optimist would say the worst must be over for the eurozone | Joseph Stiglitz | Business | theguardian.com

“Try telling people in countries that are still in depression, with per capita GDP below pre-2008 levels and youth unemployment at 50% that the austerity medicine has worked”

Living standards to be lower in 2015 than in 2010, IFS warns | Business | theguardian.com

More than half of people living in poverty have a job – Telegraph

George Osborne’s economic policy: more poverty, worse public services | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian

Fixed-rate bond savers face ‘brick wall of disappointment’ | Money | theguardian.com

Britain announces sharp upward revision to growth forecasts | Reuters

Sweden Ready to Force Debt Curbs If Loan Growth Doesn’t Slow – Bloomberg

Wirtschaftskrise: “Frankreich braucht einen Schröder” | ZEIT ONLINE

The French business roundtable leader Perre Gattaz wants reforms in German labor markets like the ones Germany got under Gerhard Schröder.

Ukraine Protesters Smash Lenin’s Statue in Kiev

German Exports Reach Record High in October But Imports Also Increase – SPIEGEL ONLINE

ekathimerini.com | Greece sees highest deflation on record in November as consumer prices fall 2.9 pct

ekathimerini.com | Greek recession slowed again in Q3 as economy shrank by 3 pct

 

North America

Macro and Other Market Musings: The Great Macroeconomic Experiment of 2013

Stronger and Sustainable, but… – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

Taper Defied With Bond Spreads Least Since ’07: Credit Markets – Bloomberg

“Corporate-bond buyers are accepting the lowest relative yields since before the 2008 financial crisis”

Consumer credit grows more than expected in October | Reuters

Coalition of Liberals Strikes Back at Criticism From Centrist Democrats – NYTimes.com

Gross Says Job Gains Mean 50% Odds of December Fed Taper – Bloomberg

Canada added 21,600 jobs last month. Now for the bad news | Toronto Star

 

Asia

BBC News – Japan’s economic growth revised down

Japan May Soon Start Losing Wealth – Real Time Economics – WSJ

China November inflation slows to 3 percent, eases tightening fear | Reuters

China Trade Surplus Hits Four-Year High as Exports Rise – Bloomberg

China Steps Toward Market-Based Interest Rates – WSJ.com

China’s import growth weakens | South China Morning Post

 

Emerging Markets

Uruguay blazes trail as cannabis looks set to become legal – FT.com

 

Technology

Tech giants unite against NSA | TheHill

Telekom-Chef sieht Demokratie gefährdet « WirtschaftsBlatt.at

Here the head of Deutsche Telekom says that the NSA spying is a threat to democracy.

Germany’s DHL delivers medicine by drone — Tech News and Analysis

Spy agencies in covert push to infiltrate virtual world of online gaming | World news | theguardian.com

FBI’s search for ‘Mo,’ suspect in bomb threats, highlights use of malware for surveillance – The Washington Post

Why digital storage is the next hockey stick market in tech — Tech News and Analysis

Google Nexus 5 (Unlocked) Review & Rating | PCMag.com

Google Squeezes Margins on Moto G Phone – WSJ.com

“Research firm TechInsights estimates that the components inside a Moto G with 16 gigabytes of memory cost $123. Motorola charges $199 for the device in the U.S. without a wireless contract.”

NSA Wrongly Says Warrantless Mobile-Phone Location Tracking Is Legal | Threat Level | Wired.com

Skype’s Suspicious Absence From Microsoft’s Anti-NSA Promises | TechCrunch

finance news