Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here’s a brief version of the list. Like Wien, I think these are events most see as 1 in 3 but have a 50% or better likelihood of occurring.
- Greece sees writedowns
- Romney gets the nod in the US
- China has a hard landing
- India slows more than China
- Australia’s property boom ends
- European equities outperforms
- US GDP comes in below Byron Wien’s expected 3%
- German GDP slows dramatically
- Gold has its first off year
- The ECB provides more explicit backstops
Full post and reasoning at Credit Writedowns Pro with more discussion there to follow.