The first few links are on the housing bust in China. While things have gone pear-shaped there (and in India), it is not yet clear this means a hard landing (5% GDP growth or less, down from over 10%). The ability of the Chinese to socialise losses is significantly greater than it is in the West. However, this bust is and was predictable.
The only question is what China can do to stop it from creating a downward spiral. As the second post is titled it’s a question of credit writedowns first, but in this synchronised global growth slow down, then what?
Here are a few links forecasting potential outcomes from earlier at Credit Writedowns.
- Is China’s hard landing already happening?, Apr 2011
- China: First the credit writedowns, but then what?, Jun 2011
- Gary Shilling expects a hard landing in China, Jul 2011
- China: no hard landing, but no solution, Michael Pettis, Aug 2011
- Understanding the latest economic data out of China, Win Thin, Nov 2011
Links here
- Hendry’s ‘China short’ fund makes big returns – FT.com
Hugh Hendry, the outspoken UK hedge fund manager known for his bearish, often contrarian views on the global economy, has seen his ‘China short’ fund rack up gains of more than 52 per cent so far this year, investors have told the Financial Times.
- China Stocks Drop to 2-Year Low on Housing Slump, European Debt – Businessweek
Anhui Conch Cement Co., whose materials are used in property construction, slid 4.5 percent after Fitch Ratings said China faces slower growth in home sales and construction next year. Poly Real Estate Group Co. led declines for developers after the nation’s biggest real-estate website reported housing transactions plunged more than 50 percent in 13 cities out of 35. Jiangxi Copper Co. retreated the most this month on concern faltering growth in Europe will cut demand for raw materials.
- China’s housing bubble deflating – latimes.com
Home prices and sales plunge after China’s government intentionally slams on the brakes. Some recent buyers stage demonstrations, destroy real estate offices and demand refunds of up to 40%.
- Welthandel: Als China den Turbo einschaltete – Wirtschaft – FAZ
Chinas Beitritt zur Welthandelsorganisation WTO vor zehn Jahren hat den Aufstieg erheblich beschleunigt. Jetzt ist China so stark, dass es sich über Regeln einfach hinwegsetzt.
- They Don’t Care About Deficits – NYTimes.com
the GOP is not now, and never has been (at least not since the 1970s) concerned about the deficit. All the fiscal posturing of the last couple of years has been about using the deficit as a club to smash the welfare state, with the secondary goal of frustrating any efforts on the part of the Obama administration to help the struggling economy. The entire debate has been fake.
- Felix Zulauf Interview, 12 Dec 2011 – King World News
- Google Acquisition of Motorola Delayed in Europe – NYTimes.com
European antitrust regulators have suspended their investigation into Google’s acquisition of Motorola Mobility, a maker of smartphones, until Google provides additional evidence in the case, the European Commission said Monday.
- The Real Reason Twitter Employees Are Leaving-So They Can Sell Their Stock | TechCrunch
Twitter is very restrictive about when employees can sell shares. It just completed an $800 million financing round in September, half of which went to employees selling up to 20 percent of their shares. While that did serve as a release valve, the offering is over. If you are a longtime Twitter employee sitting on a bunch of fully-vested shares that you want to unload, your best bet might be to quit and try to sell them on private secondary markets.
- What’s the Most Secure Web Browser?
A new Google-funded study of browser security by security research firm Accuvant Labs crowned Chrome the champion of security features, and ranked Firefox below Internet Explorer in terms of protection available from web-borne threats. Predictably, Microsoft and Mozilla have different opinions on what makes a browser secure, and why Accuvant’s findings are off base. All of this got us thinking about which browser is the most secure, and whether the security features listed in studies like this even matter to the rest of us.
- Royal Bank of Scotland – Chronik des Versagens (Wirtschaft, Aktuell, NZZ Online)
Rettung kostet 45 Milliarden Pfund – Niemand wird zur Rechenschaft gezogen
- Nach der Weltklimakonferenz: Kanada zieht sich aus Kyoto-Protokoll zurück – Politik – FAZ
Kurz nach dem Ende der Weltklimakonferenz hat Kanada als erstes Land seinen Austritt aus dem Kyoto-Protokoll erklärt. Damit umgeht das Land Zahlungen in Höhe von umgerechnet 10,5 Milliarden Euro.
- Our decade from hell will get worse in 2012 – Paul B. Farrell – MarketWatch
Fasten your seat belts: 2011 was far worse than expected. Our earlier predictions for America’s Worst Decade just got worse.
- Apocalypse Newt – 2012 Elections – Salon.com
Newt Gingrich has changed a lot of positions over his many years in public life, but there are a few things about his worldview that are consistent. One is an obsession with apocalyptic or civilization-ending threats, often paired with the idea that Gingrich himself is alone (or nearly so) in recognizing the scale of the danger and in being equipped to deal with it.
- Crisi Banche Europa e le tonnellate di denaro | IntermarketAndMore
Le voci che ieri sera ho scritto su Commerzbank continuano a non essere confermate (in quanto gli aiuti non sono ancora partiti, purtroppo l’ammissione è legata all’esecutività). Ma se Commerzbank non è in ottime acque, posso anche dirvi che è in buona compagnia. Infatti mi giunge voce che diverse altre banche tedesche rischiano le penne. Volete ancora qualche nome? Mamma quanto siete curiosi… Evvabbene, si tratta di NordLB, WestLB, Helaba. Solo rumors, bene inteso. Però… l’EBA la pensava diversamente… Ma allora a cosa diavolo serve l’EBA?
- Eurozone crisis: hopes of recovery recede while recession looms | Business | The Guardian
Gerard Lyons, the chief economist at Standard Chartered predicts that the eurozone will contract by 1.5% next year, while the UK will suffer a fall in output of 1.3%
- ECB Overnight Deposits Hit Fresh High – WSJ.com
Banks deposited €346.36 billion ($456.78 billion) overnight, up from the previous 2011 peak of €334.91 billion deposited overnight Friday.
- Apple Softens Stance to Lure Mobile Ads – WSJ.com
Facing challenges winning over customers for its iAd mobile advertising service, Apple is softening its approach as it loses ground to Google Inc. in the fast-growing mobile-ad market.
- Euro Bounces Back – WSJ.com
The euro rebounded strongly off near ten-week lows in European trade Tuesday as a slew of key bond auctions passed by without a hitch, including almost €2 billion ($2.64 billion) of bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Facility.
- BBC News – Switzerland cuts economic growth forecast
The Swiss government has cut its 2012 growth forecast, blaming the economy’s exposure to the eurozone crisis.
- BBC News – Indian rupee falls to historic low against US dollar
The Indian rupee has hit a new all-time low against the US dollar, after the release of weak economic data.
- Cameron’s Go-It-Alone on Euro Can’t Cut U.K. Off From EU Decision-Making – Bloomberg
Britain is tightly locked into a system of European regulation in which decisions taken in Brussels in setting common standards are also be applied by countries outside the bloc. That even applies to those that have no intention of joining, such as Norway and Switzerland, because their economies are so interlinked with those of EU nations.
- CME to Customers: Drop Dead « naked capitalism
Organization is more important than customer. The good thing about the Japanese is they are willing to tell you things like that straight up, at least is you persist in being a clueless gaijin long enough.
- Euro zone fiscal pact fails to restore confidence | Reuters
A European summit deal to strengthen budget discipline in the euro zone failed to restore financial market confidence on Monday, forcing the European Central Bank to step in again gingerly.
- How Rush Limbaugh Helped Hand the Election to Obama – The Daily Beast
Republicans just opposed a middle-class tax cut-and handed Obama the election.
- Boston Review – Alfred F. Young: The People and the Patriots (Boston Tea Party, American Revolution)
In December 1773, tea was destroyed in Boston Harbor. We’ve fought over its interpretation ever since