Gary Shilling sees a hard landing in China as they try to deal with the bad debt problem there. But note, when he says ‘hard landing’, he says this would "knock their growth rate in half." That’s still almost 5% annualised GDP growth.
Video below
Also see the following series of articles on Bloomberg for more on his thinking:
- Why China’s Heading for a Hard Landing, Part 1: A. Gary Shilling
- Why China’s Heading for a Hard Landing, Part 2: A. Gary Shilling
- Why China’s Heading for a Hard Landing, Part 3: A. Gary Shilling
- Shilling: China Heading for a Hard Landing, Pt. 4
- Why China’s Heading for a Hard Landing, Part 5: A. Gary Shilling