On Ireland, Double Dips and Other Links

I will be on BNN at 12:15 today. Topics are unknown but Ireland’s downgrade and double dip in the US are two likely subjects.  My general take is that this is playing out as scripted here and here.

Back in 2009, when I was talking about the potential for a double dip, my baseline was for a multiyear recovery, but my baseline for the U.S. moved to double dip late last year because I anticipated a muted policy response. See here. Some of you are talking about the fake recovery as if it never happened. In that vein, David Rosenberg is now serving up charts that have recession lines with no break in the Great Recession to present. So he’s telling us his baseline is no recovery. (video below)

My take: statistically speaking, the economy has grown for four quarters. A year of statistical growth sounds like a statistical recovery. But read Technical recovery won’t feel like a recovery to most for why people are saying we are not in recovery. I reckon people said the same thing in 1981 too.

Here are the links with a highlight on Ireland.

On Ireland

• NAMA to ‘recover just €16bn out of €40bn spend on loans’ – Irish, Business – Independent.ie
• Ireland hits back at S&P downgrade – Telegraph
• BBC News – Ireland suffers ratings downgrade
• FT Alphaville » Irish-German yield spread reaches record 329bps

The Usual Fare