That’s what we seem to be expecting based on the huge uptick in equities since March. While stock markets have long since moved it up a gear, the employment market is stuck in neutral. The latest seasonally-adjusted jobless claims numbers came in at 530,000. The widely-followed four week average is still 526,250 and is not coming down.
These numbers are more consistent with a loss of 200,000 jobs per month than of one of declining unemployment. When you have more people losing jobs than getting them, you don’t have the pre-conditions for a sustainable recovery. The economy needs to move it up a notch or we are looking at a double dip.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS
|
|
Advance |
|
|
|
Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Oct. 24 |
Oct. 17 |
Change |
Oct. 10 |
Year |
|
Initial Claims (SA) |
530,000 |
531,000 |
-1,000 |
520,000 |
485,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Initial Claims (NSA) |
492,456 |
460,430 |
+32,026 |
509,730 |
449,389 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
526,250 |
532,250 |
-6,000 |
533,000 |
477,750 |
|
|
Advance |
|
|
|
Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Oct. 17 |
Oct. 10 |
Change |
Oct. 3 |
Year |
|
Ins. Unemployment (SA) |
5,797,000 |
5,945,000 |
-148,000 |
6,034,000 |
3,773,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) |
4,968,019 |
4,916,574 |
+51,445 |
4,953,947 |
3,233,118 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
5,960,750 |
6,039,500 |
-78,750 |
6,093,250 |
3,746,500 |
Source
Weekly Unemployment Claims Report – ETA Press Releases