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Dealing with confirmation bias in macro analysis at market turning points
My macro view for most of the global economy is upbeat. My only downbeat views concern deceleration of growth in emerging markets and froth in capital markets. But in the main, market and economic momentum is up and to the right. The…
Risk for Greece and European periphery from Ukraine crisis escalation mounts
The big news in the markets today is the standoff in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian armed rebels and the Ukrainian military. This has European markets selling off. The potential for problems in eastern Ukraine is something we should…
Four key reasons for capex accelerating
Sober Look's received a number of e-mails regarding the recent post on the possibility that rising CAPEX spending in the US is driving corporations to tap their credit facilities, thus increasing loan growth. Most were highly critical of…
ECB Action: Just a Question of Time?
The Managing Director of the IMF and the chief economist are making no bones about it. More action by the ECB is inevitable. It is "just a question of timing," says Lagarde and "sooner was better than later", chimed Blanchard, the chief…
Economic and market themes: 2014-04-11 – Greece
This week’s theme post will be exclusively about Greece because I think the Greek bond deal is emblematic of trends we see in markets and the real economy. And of course, the big news in the past few days is Greece. Its 5-year government…
Thoughts on Greek bonds, Asian data and resource gamesmanship
The Greek bond deal that in February I predicted would come to market was deemed a rousing success by the market. Initially Greece had planned a 2 billion euro offering for 5-year money. But there was heavy interest and Greece’s…