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Where would the US be today without the shale stimulus?
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We are not in recession right now
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The Saudis as the driving surplus oil producer
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When market contagion occurs, this is how it will happen
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Oil capex, resource misallocation and the global growth slowdown
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Profit mean reversion and recession
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The faltering US economy and emerging market contagion
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Internal and external balance
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The Fed bias remains toward tightening
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Repeat after me: sectoral balances must sum to zero
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