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Credit Writedowns

Goodbye to Credit Writedowns

Risks to growth and inflation helping keep long rates down

What’s your model on how real GDP grows durably?

Let’s unpack Clarida’s comments while we wait for Powell

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Trump is making it harder for the Fed to ease

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The credit cycle is now turning down. Here’s the evidence and the vulnerability

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Credit Writedowns is back!

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The credit cycle is now turning down

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Expect political trench warfare as the economy slows

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Countdown to inversion: US Treasury curve flattening has resumed

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Is Trump’s goose cooked on the economy?

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More on the meltdown in oil (and a cut in oil capex)

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Predicting the political economy for the 2020 US presidential election

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