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September 2018
Why the US upswing will endure and how this business cycle ends
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Bear steepening, the Fed reaction function, and a 2019 crunch for marginal debtors
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US economic strength continues as yields begin to climb
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Trump tariffs and doubling down on “Made in China 2025”
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The rise of xenophobia and the case of Mesut Özil
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Handicapping the logic behind predictions for a recession by 2020
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Why I am more worried about Europe than the US
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The US-Chinese trade war and a slowing global economy
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Some thoughts on unanchored inflation expectations, Fed policy and rising 10-year yields
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Lines drawn in predictions for a recession by 2020
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