I was just looking at the New York Fed’s Nowcast for Q4 and noticed the numbers climbing as the quarter progressed. Yet when the final number came out, there was a big miss to the downside.
Source: NY Fed
Given the numbers were climbing and we missed to the downside, could we expect a data revision upward when the next estimate is released at the end of February? With more people talking about the Fed’s reaction function – and some now openly talking about a 4th rate increase in 2018 —I think a big upward revision in the data would be what the President would call an unwelcome ‘good news’ surprise.
In the “old days,” when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 7, 2018
Right now, the Atlanta Fed is tracking Q1 at 4.0%, whereas the NY Fed has 3.2% growth.
Source: NY Fed