Catching a falling Blackberry | FT Alphaville
I can’t fathom paying $4.7 billion for Blackberry.
Bundestagswahl: Grüne Minister offen für Schwarz-Grün – Politik – Süddeutsche.de
This article says a CDU-Green national government is a distinct possibility. I agree. This does give Merkel some leverage in her talks with the SPD. But, the party line from both sides is that such an alliance is a non-starter. I don’t believe this. I think it is a possibility for the CDU instead of new elections.
German SPD Will Demand Big Concessions for Coalition With Merkel – SPIEGEL ONLINE
I expect the SPD to AT LEAST demand the finance ministry in exchange for a Grand Coalition. As ECB’s Asmussen is SPD, we would definitely see a shift in German European policy toward stimulus.
“Despite Angela Merkel’s landslide win, it could take months for Germany to form a coalition. She’s only five seats short of a majority but the SPD, stung by its last foray into government with the chancellor, will extract a high price — and may say no altogether.”
Merkel’s bittersweet victory – FT.com
“After four years of government Ms Merkel is the last woman standing. She has won – but at what a cost? Without the help of either the opposition Social Democrats or the liberal left of the Greens there will be no easy third term in office. And the Greens and the SPD will be damned if they help Ms Merkel out of this predicament.
Everybody was so busy hailing victory for Ms Merkel that they did not notice that, combined, the left-of-centre opposition parties still have a majority. But for the SPD to be able to profit from this situation it has to rethink not only its strategy but also its political identity. Is it or is it not a part of the majority left of centre? “
Germany’s strange parallel universe – FT.com
“In the most recent quarter, Spain’s GDP was 7.5 per cent below its pre-crisis peak; Portugal’s, 7.6 per cent; Ireland’s, 8.4 per cent; Italy’s, 8.8 per cent; and Greece’s, 23.4 per cent. None of these countries is enjoying a strong recovery.”
IMF Cuts Growth Forecast for Russia – WSJ.com
“The IMF said Tuesday that it saw the economy growing at 1.5% this year and 3% in 2014, held back by weak investment and low demand for its exports. In June, the Fund cut its outlook for 2013 to 2.5%, after an earlier cut in April to 3.4% from 3.7%. In April, the Fund saw Russia’s economy growth in 2014 at 3.8%.
The IMF outlook for this year is even more pessimistic than that of the Russian government, which sees 2013 growth at 1.8%, down from the 3.6% forecast at the start of the year. “
US consumer confidence slips as house prices rise at the fastest rate in seven years – Telegraph
“The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 79.7 in September, down from a revised 81.8 in August.
Though a decline was expected for September, the figure was weaker than the 80.0 consensus estimate.
“This is in line… with buyers awaiting a battle among lawmakers over raising the Treasury debt ceiling that could threaten a government shutdown,” said Nate Kelley of Moody’s Analytics.
The Present Situation Index rose to 73.2 in September from 70.9 in August. “
U.S. state tax revenues hit record highs in second quarter: Census | Reuters
You don’t get an orgy of defaults when coffers are filling. Wait until recession to see problems.
“Tax revenues for U.S. states soared to their highest in 25 years in the second quarter as personal income tax collections reached record amounts, U.S. Census data released on Tuesday showed.
Total state tax revenues rose 9.4 percent from the second quarter of 2012 to $259.6 billion, the largest intake on records going back to 1988 and the 15th straight quarter of increases.”
“a double-dip recession would, in turn, push back the date of Fed rate increases far into the future, which would normally cause a big drop in long-term rates.
So I’m not at all sure that we’re looking at an interest rate spike; maybe even the opposite.
But for sure we should be looking at a plunging dollar, and probably carnage in the stock market too.”
Dilma Rousseff attacks US spying at UN – FT.com
““We are … confronting a case of grave violations of human rights and civil liberties as well as the invasion and capture of secret information about the activities of companies and above all, disrespect for the national sovereignty of my country,” she told the assembly.
Ms Rousseff’s pursuit of the espionage issue will add to pressure on the US to respond to Brazil’s complaints, with Latin America’s largest country seeking a formal explanation, apology and pledge not to repeat the activity.”
Nokia admits mistake over Stephen Elop’s €18.8m payoff | Technology | The Guardian
I wrote you before that the Elop payoff seemed ridiculous given the fact that he basically failed. The furore over the payout seems similar to the one over the Mannesmann payout when it was taken over by Vodafone over a decade ago. People in Europe simply are not ready for American-style capitalism in all its forms. And the outcry over Elop’s payout tells you that.
Amazon Refreshes Kindle Line With Fire HDX – WSJ.com
“From their introduction two years ago, Amazon’s tablets have stood out chiefly for their low prices and deeply integrated Amazon-specific software.
“If you’re making most of your money when you sell the device, you really care about upgrading, and what we really care about is building a device that people continue to use,” said Mr. Bezos”
Sweden sells remaining stake in Nordea for $3.4 billion | Reuters
This is the right context to think about RBS and Lloyd’s. It has take the Swedes decades!
“”In some sense, one could say today we put an end to the banking crisis which ravaged the 80s and 90s,” Minister of Financial Markets Peter Norman said.”
China’s economic growth more like 4%: Marc Faber
“”You have to look at other indicators that are more reliable such as export data from Taiwan and South Korea,” he said.
The latest data from Taiwan shows exports rose 3.6 percent on year in August, below market expectations for a 3.9 percent increase.”
Bono defends Ireland’s low taxes
“”Tax competitiveness has taken our country out of poverty. People in the revenue accept that if you engage in that policy then some people are going to go out, and some people are coming in. It has been a successful policy. On the cranky left that is very annoying, I can see that. But tax competitiveness is why Ireland has stayed afloat. When the Germans tried to impose a different tax regime on the country in exchange for a bailout, the taoiseach said they would rather not have the bailout,” he said. “
Americans Turn on Washington, 68% Say Wrong Track in Poll – Bloomberg
“Obama’s 45 percent job-approval rating is the lowest since September 2011, a month after a partisan showdown over lifting the debt ceiling brought the U.S. to the brink of default.
Americans also are pessimistic about the course of the country, with 68 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction, the most in two years, according to the poll of 1,000 adults conducted Sept. 20-23. “
How a Crypto ‘Backdoor’ Pitted the Tech World Against the NSA | Threat Level | Wired.com
“Paul Kocher, president and chief scientist of Cryptography Research, says that regardless of the lack of evidence in the Times story, he discounts the “bad cryptography” explanation for the weakness, in favor of the backdoor one.
“Bad cryptography happens through laziness and ignorance,” he says. “But in this case, a great deal of effort went into creating this and choosing a structure that happens to be amenable to attack.
“What’s mathematically creative [with this algorithm] is that when you look at it, you can’t even prove whether there is a backdoor or not, which is very bizarre in cryptography,” he says. “Usually the presence of a backdoor is something you can prove is there, because you can see it and exploit it…. In my entire career in cryptography, I’ve never seen a vulnerability like this.””
AnandTech | The iPhone 5s Review
If you are thinking about the iPhone 4S, this is the review for you.
Nokia Lumia 1020 review | PC Pro
“A superb camera and a highly competent smartphone – the best Windows Phone 8 smartphone yet”
US nearly detonated atomic bomb over North Carolina – secret document | World news | The Guardian
“Journalist uses Freedom of Information Act to disclose 1961 accident in which one switch averted catastrophe”
Chart: Verizon Edge vs. AT&T Next vs. T-Mobile JUMP vs. Sprint One Up – Droid Life
Why some cryptographic keys are much smaller than others | CloudFlare Blog
Vancouver’s Record $39 Million Sale to Royal Signals Peak – Bloomberg
Is Vancouver the new London or is this a sign of excess or both?
“A Middle Eastern royal’s purchase in May of the penthouse suite and unit below it at Vancouver’s five-star Fairmont Pacific Rim hotel for C$40 million ($39 million) was the most expensive condominium purchase in Canada. “
“After 13 years and 175 million users, Pandora has yet to turn a profit.
Brian McAndrews, Pandora’s new CEO, faces two challenges as he steps to the helm: reducing royalties from the 50-60% of sales currently paid, and increasing revenues per listener hour. The former represents the company’s central challenge, and is the subject of an ongoing war with rights-holders. But McAndrews can’t wait until that problem is solved to begin plotting Pandora’s future.”
Fed Officials See Short-Term Rates At or Below 2.0% in 2016 – Real Time Economics – WSJ
“In their first set of forecasts for 2016, 10 of 17 Fed officials Wednesday said rates would remain low more than three years from now. The appropriate longer-run federal funds rate–in a more normal environment–is about 4%, Fed officials have said.”
Forward misguidance | Gavyn Davies
“Challenged at his press conference, Mr Bernanke said that he makes monetary policy for the good of the economy, not to ratify the expectations of investors. In this, he is fully justified. The fact that a minority of investors might have lost money as a result of the so-called “broken contract” should not concern the Fed one jot. Caveat emptor!
But there are more significant reasons why the Fed and other central banks should pay attention to the market’s reaction last week. It highlights difficulties inherent in their new and much-loved strand of policy, forward guidance.”
China Manufacturing Gauge Increases to Six-Month High – Bloomberg
Nice to see but the numbers are still a bit weak.
“The preliminary reading of 51.2 for a Purchasing Managers’ Index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics compared with a 50.9 median estimate from 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The gauge was at 50.1 in August. A euro-area manufacturing and services gauge rose more than estimated this month, a separate Markit report showed today.
Citigroup Inc. earlier this month raised its third-quarter growth forecast to 7.8 percent from 7.4 percent, while Deutsche Bank AG increased its estimate to 7.9 percent from 7.7 percent, the second boost in a month.”
EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » Germany After Merkel’s Election Victory
Good take on the politics in Germany, particularly this:
“In relative terms, the fall of the business-friendly Free Democrats, Merkel’s coalition party, has been even more spectacular. After the global crisis, the party had a 20 percent support in Germany; today, less than 5 percent.
The FDP’s classic liberal ideology is a poor draw in an era when most Germans feel that laissez-faire capitalism is history. After Guido Westerwelle, FDP has been led by Philipp Rösler. As Merkel’s junior partner, the party has engaged with policies that violate its ideology. If it loses its role in the government, it risks fading into political nothingness.
Merkel has ingeniously coopted her opposition; not by confronting it, but by absorbing its core tenets. This involves even the Left Party, which is currently supported by every tenth German (but whose support peaked at 15 percent during the global crisis).
By endorsing minimum wages in many sectors, the phase-out of nuclear power, economic fairness and equality, Merkel has neutralized her opponents, one by one. As a result, the Social Democrats seek to re-brand themselves by pushing more into the center-left.”
Ten US high-yield issuers storm the market | Capital City | IFRe
““Treasuries are almost 30bp tighter on the week, and the mentality of issuers is to go now before tapering starts,” said one high yield syndicate banker.
By 10am ET on Monday, 10-year Treasury yields were around 2.7045%.”
Toronto condo sales hit decade low | Financial Post
I see this as a bad sign for this market:
“August condominium sales in the Greater Toronto area were the worst in a decade and are now 46% below the long-term average, says the Building Industry and Land Development Association.
At the same time the tight market for low-rise homes has prices at all-time high for that segment of the market. The gap between the index price for high-rise and low-rise homes is now $222,149 — the highest on record.”
US manufacturing growth slows as demand eases – Telegraph
“Financial data firm Markit said its “flash,” or preliminary, US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index retreated to 52.8 this month from 53.1 in August. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
Output growth accelerated to a six-month high of 55.3 from 52.5, but new order inflows from domestic and overseas customers slowed, suggesting “production growth is likely to weaken in the fourth quarter unless demand picks up again in October,” said Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief economist. “