As I indicated on 27 April on Why the Spanish bailout may be to recap the banks instead of sovereign, I don’t believe the Europeans are going to bail out the Spanish sovereign. Instead, given that Spain has low sovereign debt to GDP, the easier solution is to finagle a way to get money into bank hands for a recap. Increasingly, I am hearing that this is slated to happen.
On 30 May I wrote that The crisis in Spain has reached the breaking point and I felt that we would see a policy move to address the Spanish crisis within days. Now German officials speaking off the record are saying the Germans are working on the bailout and that it will occur through Spain’s bad bank fund the FROB rather than to Spanish banks directly. Moreover, I am also hearing that there will be no austerity conditions attached to these funds in order for Spain to "save face".
While these reports are rumors, they have been published in credible sources. And so I continue to believe this bailout is going to happen.
The question then becomes what to do about Italy.
That’s it. Here are the links.
Spain makes explicit plea for bank aid – FT.com
Germany finalizing face-saving aid deal for Spain | Reuters
EU, Germany exploring Spanish rescue, no request yet | Reuters
Cyprus on financial brink from Greek exposure | Reuters
French president Francois Hollande cuts retirement age – Telegraph
Sober Look: Rising coal stockpiles in Tianjin point to declining power demand
Smile turns to a frown as internet bank’s interest rates hit 0% | Money | guardian.co.uk
FT Alphaville » Debt jubilee for one and all — love, the Queen
Kindle Fire Not Exactly Burning Up U.S. Tablet Market – John Paczkowski – Mobile – AllThingsD