We got two good proxies for the economic trajectory in the US this morning at 830 AM. Jobless claims were 402,000 with the 4-week moving average now settling in at 405,500. GDP rose an annualized 2.5% in the third quarter according to the government’s advanced estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP had risen 1.3%.
As I said in the recent Fedex post, “Q3 GDP growth will be decent (+2.0%) and Q4 growth will be weak but not recessionary. After that, it is anyone’s guess.” These numbers confirm this is where we are. 2.5% GDP growth is pretty good for this economy. However, I expect growth to slow in Q4. I also expect a recession in 2012. Although I would not say it is inevitable.