Here’s my take on the wideners:
- Hungary. The Hungarians are a basket case and the Swiss franc exposure is killing them. Many Hungarian municipalities have debts in francs because it was cheap. Bad move – and this has been going on for a long time. Edward Hugh says the “Hungarian government’s much publicised unorthodox plans to cut the country’s public debt level has been attracting a lot of attention of late”. Indeed, most of the attention is bad.
- Italy. Their yields are exploding. Yet the ECB is doing nothing. Morgan Stanley says fiscal austerity and privatisation come first and that the ECB can step in at any time if need be. Good luck.
- Slovakia. I haven’t heard anything here. They use euros so it can’t be a carry trade thing as it is in Hungary. If anyone knows, please do tell.
- Germany. Interesting. They are part of the euro zone and hence, the Germans are vulnerable too. Still, like Slovakia the default likelihood is low.
- Turkey. Win Thin just noted “Turkey presents a good example of the risks Brazil faces if policy slippage continues, especially in this current environment where investors are not very forgiving of countries making policy mistakes”. People are concerned about capital flight and currency depreciation.
- Belgium. They have no government and a huge debt to GDP. As I have been saying, they are next to join the periphery as the spread to bunds is already over 200 basis points
- UK. Interesting. Default risk also low as it is in Germany, due mainly to currency sovereignty. But double dip talk is beginning, meaning deficits could increase.
Europe is where this debt crisis is focussed. If anyone has market talk, please add comments.
P.S. – the Dow is down over 400 points today. So, those non-farm payrolls had better deliver tomorrow or it will not be good.