According to figures released by the US Department of Labor, US initial jobless claims dropped to 434,000 this past week, their lowest levels in over three months. Analysts had been expecting upwards of 450,000 claims where the numbers have plateaued for a number of weeks.
My take: the downward trajectory in claims is rather slow. However, this is not out of line with the last two jobless recoveries. 2011 will be much more about the ability for the economy to make gains in the face of a weak housing market and likely austerity at the federal as well as the state and local level.
Source: US Department of Labor
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS
|
Advance |
Prior1 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Oct. 23 |
Oct. 16 |
Change |
Oct. 9 |
Year |
|
Initial Claims (SA) |
434,000 |
455,000 |
-21,000 |
475,000 |
528,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Initial Claims (NSA) |
405,639 |
393,961 |
+11,678 |
462,667 |
494,476 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
453,250 |
458,750 |
-5,500 |
462,250 |
528,750 |
|
Advance |
Prior1 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Oct. 16. |
Oct. 9 |
Change |
Oct. 2 |
Year |
|
Ins. Unemployment (SA) |
4,356,000 |
4,478,000 |
-122,000 |
4,444,000 |
5,803,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) |
3,742,003 |
3,716,598 |
+25,405 |
3,705,942 |
4,984,950 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
4,447,250 |
4,485,750 |
-38,500 |
4,499,750 |
5,908,000 |
|
Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA)2 |
3.5% |
3.6% |
-0.1 |
3.5% |
4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ins. Unemployment Rate (NSA)2 |
3.0% |
3.0% |
0.0 |
2.9% |
3.8% |