David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Scheff, has the following graph showing the dramatic drop in mortgage applications for home purchases in the most recent report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
It is interesting to note that Rosenberg does not show an end date for the recession on his graphs. Most optimists show an end date in the middle of 2009. Most realists show an end late third quarter or early fourth quarter. Rosenberg is clearly a pessimist about the economy.
The official end date for the recession will be determined by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research). The determination often comes many months after the official date defined. In other words, the end of the recession will be post-dated. No date has been designated as yet.