Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 12th came in at a seasonally-adjusted (SA) 480,000, which is a rise of 7,000 from the previous week. This brings the 4-week SA average down to 467,500, the lowest in 15-months. Clearly layoffs have receded. However, hiring has yet to begin in earnest, so the employment situation remains weak.
Because of heavy seasonal adjustments at this time of year, I think we will have to wait until after the holiday season for a more meaningful change in the data. For now, the scenario is in a holding pattern: slow but steady decline in new claims mixed with weak hiring environment and a high level of unemployment and underemployment means a weak recovery.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS
|
|
Advance |
|
|
|
Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Dec. 12 |
Dec. 5 |
Change |
Nov. 28 |
Year |
|
Initial Claims (SA) |
480,000 |
473,000 |
+7,000 |
454,000 |
552,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Initial Claims (NSA) |
555,344 |
662,737 |
-107,393 |
457,707 |
629,867 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
467,500 |
472,750 |
-5,250 |
480,750 |
535,250 |
|
|
Advance |
|
|
|
Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Dec. 5 |
Nov. 28 |
Change |
Nov. 21 |
Year |
|
Ins. Unemployment (SA) |
5,186,000 |
5,181,000 |
+5,000 |
5,470,000 |
4,356,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) |
5,176,122 |
5,399,111 |
-222,989 |
4,791,751 |
4,378,273 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
5,318,250 |
5,425,000 |
-106,750 |
5,542,500 |
4,208,250 |
|
Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA) |
3.9% |
3.9% |
0.0 |
4.1% |
3.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ins. Unemployment Rate (NSA) |
3.9% |
4.1% |
-0.2 |
3.6% |
3.3% |
Source
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – US Department of Labor