The U.S. Department of Labor reported a fall from a revised 575,000 jobless claims don to a still very elevated 554,000 this past week. On the whole these numbers demonstrate that many jobs are being lost and that the December unemployment number will be very large when released early next month.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported the following:
In the week ending Dec. 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 554,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 575,000. The 4-week moving average was 543,750, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 541,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent for the week ending Dec. 6, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 6 was 4,384,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,431,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,226,000, an increase of 92,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,134,000.
According to the change in seasonally unadjusted numbers this employment market is the worst since at least the early 1980s.
Here you can see that the one-year change in unadjusted initial jobless claims is at it’s highest level since the double dip recessions of the early 1980s and is less than the recession in 1973-1975. (The red line represents this past week’s level)
Continuing claims show the same: we are at levels seen in the early 1980s but nowhere near the levels from the recession in 1973-1975. (The red line represents this past week’s level)
My take? Unemployment will rise steeply to at least 8% next year. However, we are not yet at the levels seen in the deepest recession of recent memory 1973-1975. When the holiday season is over, we may get more data to give a better read.
Source
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Department of Labor