With a slew of layoffs ranging from airlines to banking, expect both claims data and the unemployment rate to spike up substantially. This week may be the first such week as jobless claims came in at 404,000, the 2nd time over 400,000 this business cycle. 4-week average data is now at 390,500, +71,250 over last year, which is clearly recessionary.
In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 404,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 390,500, an increase of 11,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 379,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending June 21, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 2.4 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 21 was 3,116,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,135,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,110,750, an increase of 8,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,102,000.
The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 2.913 million.
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